To: Carol Clawson

From: Linda Whedbee & Lisbeth Vincent

Re: Brief Statistical Analysis of 2014 National Finals Preliminary/Semi-Final Results

We have completed an analysis of the data from the 2014 National Finals. Specific information on which day and time of the day the teams competed is not available. We have assumed that 38 teams competed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, while 36 teams competed on Friday. For the purpose of analysis we have divided the day into “first half” and “second half,” assuming 19 runs in each half. We will label first half, AM, and, second half, PM.

We went back and looked at the preliminary scores to discern how many handlers went forward on each of the preliminary days. Because of ties this year, 41 handler/dog teams moved forward into this year’s semi-finals (versus the prescribed 40). We found that the following number moved forward on Tuesday: 10; Wednesday: 10; Thursday: 12; and, Friday: 9.

We believe that this amount of discrepancy by day would not support the notion that one day was significantly more difficult or easier than another. To analyze this further, we totaled the number of handlers who received no scores (RTs/DQs)—Tuesday: 13; Wednesday: 13; Thursday: 10; Friday:14. These figures also seem to support the notion that one day was not any harder or easier than another.

We also looked at which handlers would have qualified for the semi-finals if the ten highest scores per day where selected (as is currently being proposed). For the 2014 year, that would mean that on Tuesday and Wednesday qualifiers would remain the same. On Thursday, the ten highest scores would mean that Bridget Strang/Treat (130) and Tommy Wilson/Meg(124) would not have qualified. The ten highest scores on Friday would have added one additional qualifier (Larry Birch/Dot(122). Remember that if you are choosing teams by the day they competed, tie scores would not be by overall competition, but by the day on which the tie occurred. Therefore, for example, Dereck Fischer/Jen (130) would have qualified on Wednesday and Jean Gellings/Star (130) would have qualified on Friday, while Bridget Strang/Treat (130) on Thursday, would not have qualified. Bridget Strang’s score of 130 was also higher than Jennifer Glenn/Lad (126) and Allen Higenbottom/Boddie (124) on Tuesday; Bev Lambert/Nan (129) on Wednesday; and, Larry Birch/Dot (122) on Friday.

We are not convinced that if you were to ask someone who ran on Thursday (which had the most qualifying runs in 2014), that they would say that Thursday was a lucky draw and an easy day to run compared to the other 3 days.

In conclusion, after examining the data from 2011 and 2014, we believe that the teams that qualify for the semi-finals would not be substantially changed by moving to ten qualifying teams per day. No one system is a “more fair” way to determine who should be advanced to the semi-final round of the National Finals. The current system guarantees that no matter what day the team competes on, they will get to run in the semi-finals as long as they have one of the highest 40 scores. Using the proposed system, teams will only be competing against the teams running on one day. The advantage to the latter system is that at the end of the day that the team has competed they will know if they have made the semi-finals.

The following is a look at the top ten from each of the preliminary runs on each of the days:

[Note: Green indicates the handler would have been in if a 10/day qualifiers would have been used. Red indicates that the handler team would have been eliminated.]

Tuesday (10 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (13)

Placing | Team | Prelim Score | AM/PM |

3 | Ron E./Mick | 159 | PM |

5 | Dave I./Tip | 154 | AM |

12 | Terry W./Nic | 146 | AM |

16 | Donna E./Ben | 154 | AM |

21 | Joni T./Bill | 142 | PM |

22 | Patrick S./Vangie | 141 | AM |

26 | Michael G./Flo | 139 | AM |

28 | Kay S./Storm | 136 | PM |

39 | Jennifer G./Lad | 126 | AM |

41 | Allen H./Bodie | 124 | PM |

Wednesday (10 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (13)

Placing | Team | Prelim Score | AM/PM |

2 | Alasdair M./Gail | 161 | PM |

6 | Joe H./Keally | 154 | PM |

13 | Jean S./Sly | 146 | PM |

14 | Chris J./Fly | 143 | PM |

15 | Noel W./Lad | 143 | AM |

23 | Shauna G./Keli | 140 | PM |

25 | Bruce F./Jill | 139 | PM |

31 | Peggy W./Liz | 131 | AM |

37 | Derek F./Jen | 130 | PM |

38 | Bev L./Nan | 129 | AM |

Thursday (12 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (10)

Placing | Team | Prelim Score | AM/PM |

1 | Ron B/Shadow | 161 | AM |

8 | Derek F/Nell | 153 | PM |

11 | Kay S/Gael | 148 | PM |

17 | Mich F/Clive | 143 | PM |

19 | Don H/Wizard | 142 | AM |

20 | Scot G/Don | 142 | PM |

27 | Emil L/Zak | 137 | PM |

30 | Barbara R/Stella | 133 | PM |

32 | Allen M/Sis | 131 | PM |

33 | Dennis G/Jigs | 131 | PM |

36 (Out) |
Bridget S/Treat |
130 |
PM |

40 (Out) |
Tom W/Meg |
124 |
PM |

Friday (9 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (14)

Placing | Team | Prelim Score | AM/PM |

4 | Michael G/Caine | 156 | PM |

9 | Amanda M/Monty | 153 | PM |

7 | Joni T/Sage | 153 | PM |

10 | Michael B/Spot | 150 | AM |

18 | Tierney G/Brisco | 142 | AM |

24 | George S/Nan | 140 | PM |

29 | Angie C-S/Andy | 135 | PM |

34 | Suzi A/Coop | 131 | AM |

35 | Jean G/Star | 130 | PM |

44 (In) | Larry B/Dot | 122 | PM |

Break down by days and AM/PM from preliminary runs through finals.

Day | # of semi-final qualifiers | # of Rt/Dq | # of Finals qualifiers |

Tuesday
AM PM Total |
6 4 10 |
3 10 13 |
3 3 6 |

Wednesday
AM PM Total |
3 7 10 |
8 5 13 |
0 3 3 |

Thursday
AM PM Total |
3 9 12 |
8 2 10 |
1 4 5 |

Friday
AM PM Total |
3 6 9 |
10 4 14 |
1 3 4 |

GRAND TOTAL
AM PM TOTAL |
15 26 41 |
29 21 50 |
5 13 18 |