2014 Finals: An Analysis of Prelims w/ Overlay of 10/Day

To:  Carol Clawson

From:  Linda Whedbee & Lisbeth Vincent

Re:  Brief Statistical Analysis of 2014 National Finals Preliminary/Semi-Final Results

We have completed an analysis of the data from the 2014 National Finals.  Specific information on which day and time of the day the teams competed is not available. We have assumed that 38 teams competed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, while 36 teams competed on Friday.  For the purpose of analysis we have divided the day into “first half” and “second half,” assuming 19 runs in each half.  We will label first half, AM, and, second half, PM.

We went back and looked at the preliminary scores to discern how many handlers went forward on each of the preliminary days.  Because of ties this year, 41 handler/dog teams moved forward into this year’s semi-finals (versus the prescribed 40). We found that the following number moved forward on Tuesday: 10; Wednesday: 10; Thursday: 12; and, Friday: 9.

We believe that this amount of discrepancy by day would not support the notion that one day was significantly more difficult or easier than another. To analyze this further, we totaled the number of handlers who received no scores (RTs/DQs)—Tuesday: 13; Wednesday: 13; Thursday: 10; Friday:14. These figures also seem to support the notion that one day was not any harder or easier than another.

We also looked at which handlers would have qualified for the semi-finals if the ten highest scores per day where selected (as is currently being proposed).  For the 2014 year, that would mean that on Tuesday and Wednesday qualifiers would remain the same.   On Thursday, the ten highest scores would mean that Bridget Strang/Treat (130) and Tommy Wilson/Meg(124) would not have qualified.  The ten highest scores on Friday would have added one additional qualifier (Larry Birch/Dot(122).   Remember that if you are choosing teams by the day they competed, tie scores would not be by overall competition, but by the day on which the tie occurred.  Therefore, for example, Dereck Fischer/Jen (130) would have qualified on Wednesday and Jean Gellings/Star (130) would have qualified on Friday, while Bridget Strang/Treat (130) on Thursday, would not have qualified.  Bridget Strang’s score of 130 was also higher than Jennifer Glenn/Lad (126) and Allen Higenbottom/Boddie (124) on Tuesday; Bev Lambert/Nan (129) on Wednesday; and, Larry Birch/Dot (122) on Friday.

We are not convinced that if you were to ask someone who ran on Thursday (which had the most qualifying runs in 2014), that they would say that Thursday was a lucky draw and an easy day to run compared to the other 3 days.

In conclusion, after examining the data from 2011 and 2014, we believe that the teams that qualify for the semi-finals would not be substantially changed by moving to ten qualifying teams per day.  No one system is a “more fair” way to determine who should be advanced to the semi-final round of the National Finals.  The current system guarantees that no matter what day the team competes on, they will get to run in the semi-finals  as long as they have one of the highest 40 scores.  Using the proposed system, teams will only be competing against the teams running on one day.  The advantage to the latter system is that at the end of the day that the team has competed they will know if they have made the semi-finals.

The following is a look at the top ten from each of the preliminary runs on each of the days:

[Note: Green indicates the handler would have been in if a 10/day qualifiers would have been used. Red indicates that the handler team would have been eliminated.]

Tuesday (10 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (13)

Placing Team Prelim Score AM/PM
3 Ron E./Mick 159 PM
5 Dave I./Tip 154 AM
12 Terry W./Nic 146 AM
16 Donna E./Ben 154 AM
21 Joni T./Bill 142 PM
22 Patrick S./Vangie 141 AM
26 Michael G./Flo 139 AM
28 Kay S./Storm 136 PM
39 Jennifer G./Lad 126 AM
41 Allen H./Bodie 124 PM

Wednesday (10 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (13)

Placing Team Prelim Score AM/PM
2 Alasdair M./Gail 161 PM
6 Joe H./Keally 154 PM
13 Jean S./Sly 146 PM
14 Chris J./Fly 143 PM
15 Noel W./Lad 143 AM
23 Shauna G./Keli 140 PM
25 Bruce F./Jill 139 PM
31 Peggy W./Liz 131 AM
37 Derek F./Jen 130 PM
38 Bev L./Nan 129 AM

Thursday (12 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (10)

Placing Team Prelim Score AM/PM
1 Ron B/Shadow 161 AM
8 Derek F/Nell 153 PM
11 Kay S/Gael 148 PM
17 Mich F/Clive 143 PM
19 Don H/Wizard 142 AM
20 Scot G/Don 142 PM
27 Emil L/Zak 137 PM
30 Barbara R/Stella 133 PM
32 Allen M/Sis 131 PM
33 Dennis G/Jigs 131 PM
36 (Out) Bridget S/Treat 130 PM
40 (Out) Tom W/Meg 124 PM

Friday (9 qualifiers)—RT/DQ (14)

Placing Team Prelim Score AM/PM
4 Michael G/Caine 156 PM
9 Amanda M/Monty 153 PM
7 Joni T/Sage 153 PM
10 Michael B/Spot 150 AM
18 Tierney G/Brisco 142 AM
24 George S/Nan 140 PM
29 Angie C-S/Andy 135 PM
34 Suzi A/Coop 131 AM
35 Jean G/Star 130 PM
44 (In) Larry B/Dot 122 PM

Break down by days and AM/PM from preliminary runs through finals.

Day # of semi-final qualifiers # of Rt/Dq # of Finals qualifiers
Tuesday

AM

PM

Total

 

6

4

10

 

3

10

13

 

3

3

6

Wednesday

AM

PM

Total

 

3

7

10

 

8

5

13

 

0

3

3

Thursday

AM

PM

Total

 

3

9

12

 

8

2

10

 

1

4

5

Friday

AM

PM

Total

 

3

6

9

 

10

4

14

 

1

3

4

GRAND TOTAL

AM

PM

TOTAL

 

15

26

41

 

29

21

50

 

5

13

18

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